주요 임산물 생산비에 의한 산림복합경영 예측

김현수1*, 이상현1

(1전북대학교 산림환경과학과)

Prediction of Agroforestry Using Production Cost of Major Non-Timber Forest Products

Hyun-Soo Kim1*, Sang-Hyun Lee1

(1Chonbuk National University Department of Forest Environmental Science)

요약: 본 연구는 산림경영에서 목재수확장기성의 제한을 보완하기 위하여 복합경영 대상 임산물의 결정방법으로 선형계획법과 비선형계획법을 활용하였다. 또한, 주요 임산물 생산비에 의한 산림복합경영 예측을 위해 현재 임산물생산비조사가 이루어지고 있는 대추, 떫은감, 밤, 호두에 대한 수익률의 평균과 표준편차를 분석하였다. 그 결과, 수익률의 평균은 각각 2.3, 2.25, 1.84, 3.9이며, 표준편차는 0.35, 0.53, 0.25, 0.52로 나타났다. 선형계획법을 활용한 분석의 경우 연 수익률이 가장 높은 호두만을 선택하여 생산하며, 이때의 수익률의 합은 호두의 연 수익률인 3.9인 것으로 나타났다. 비선형계획법을 활용한 분석의 경우 투자비율은 밤이 약 92%, 호두가 약 8%로 나타났으며, 대추와 떫은 감의 투자비율은 없었다. 기대수익률은 제약조건에서 최솟값으로 설정한 2였으며, 투자위험도에 해당하는 분산과 표준편차는 각각 0.00602와 0.24547로 나타났다.

Abstract: This study used linear programming and non-linear programming as methods for determining the target forest products of integrated management, to supplement the limitation of the prolonged period of timber harvest in forest management. Further, to predict the agroforestry  in terms of the production cost of major forest products, the means and standard deviations of the rates of return for jujube, astringent persimmon, chestnut, and walnut, the survey of product cost of which were carried out, were analyzed. As results, the mean of the rate of return was found to be 2.3, 2.25, 1.84, and 3.9, respectively, and the standard deviation was found to be 0.35, 0.53, 0.25, and 0.52, respectively. In the case of analysis with the linear programming, the chestnut, whose annual rate of return was highest, was selected for production, and the sum of the rate of return in this case was found to be 3.9, which is the annual rate of return for the chestnut. In the case of analysis with the non-linear programming, it was found that the ratio of investment was about 92% for chestnut and about 8% for walnut, and there was no ratio of investment for jujube and astringent persimmon. And the expected ratio of investment was 2, which was set to the minimum value as the constraint, and the variance and the standard deviation, which are equivalent to investment risk, were found to be 0.00602 and 0.24547, respectively.

Key words: agroforestry, linear programming, non-linear programming, investment risk